Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders

Recent evidence has suggested that psychosis could develop not only in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) but also in those with clinical risk syndromes for emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. The proportion of people with these clinical risk syndromes who will develop psychosis rather than to other nonpsychotic mental disorders is undetermined. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting on clinical risk syndromes for the development of emergent nonpsychotic mental disorders. Incidence of emerging psychotic and nonpsychotic mental disorders defined on the ICD or DSM. Of a total of 9 studies relating to 3006 nonpsychotic at-risk individuals were included. Within prospective studies (n = 4, sample = 1051), the pooled incidence of new psychotic disorders across these clinical risk syndromes was of 12.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.3 to 38.6) and that of nonpsychotic disorders (n = 3, sample = 538) was of 43.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 30.9 to 61.3). Psychotic disorders may emerge outside the CHR-P paradigm, from clinical risk syndromes for incident nonpsychotic disorders, albeit at lower rates than in the CHR-P group. The clinical risk syndromes for emerging nonpsychotic disorders may exhibit a pluripotential risk of developing several types of mental disorders compared with CHR-P. If substantiated by future research, the current findings suggest that it may be useful to move beyond the current strategy of identifying individuals meeting CHR-P criteria only.